Do growth stocks do well in a recession? (2024)

Do growth stocks do well in a recession?

Investment Style

The best recession stocks include consumer staples, utilities and healthcare companies, all of which produce goods and services that consumers can't do without, no matter how bad the economy gets.

Industries affected most include retail, restaurants, travel/tourism, leisure/hospitality, service purveyors, real estate, & manufacturing/warehouse.

As shown above, the S&P 500 declined by an average of 31% during the last 10 recessions. To put that in context, the index is currently within a percentage point of its all-time high, so the implied downside would be about 30% if a recession does occur in 2024.

Avoiding highly indebted companies, high-yield bonds and speculative investments will be important during a recession to ensure your portfolio is not exposed to unnecessary risk. Instead, it's better to focus on high-quality government securities, investment-grade bonds and companies with sound balance sheets.

And, if prices start to rise, you'll end up buying more shares at the lower prices and fewer shares when your favorite stocks start to get more expensive. In a nutshell, a recession can be a great time to buy the stocks of top-notch businesses at favorable prices.

When things are looking bleak, consider holding on to your investments. Selling during market lows can be one of the worst things you can do for your portfolio — it locks in losses.

What businesses are profitable in a recession? Many investors turn to stocks in companies that sell consumer staples like health care, food and beverages, and personal hygiene products. These businesses typically remain profitable during recessions and their share prices tend to better resist stock market sell-offs.

Luckily, there are some stocks that are more resilient to the negative effects of a downturn. Three stocks that outperformed the S&P 500 during the 2007-09 Great Recession were Gilead Sciences (GILD 0.80%), McDonald's (MCD 0.17%), and Walmart (WMT 0.13%).

What is the stock market prediction for 2024?

Wall Street analysts' consensus estimates predict 3.6% earnings growth and 3.5% revenue growth for S&P 500 companies in the first quarter. Analysts project full-year S&P 500 earnings growth of 11.0% in 2024, but analysts are more optimistic about some market sectors than others.

When the economy falls into a recession, stock market returns usually plummet into the red. For example, in the 2008 recession, S&P 500 returns for the year were 38.5%. However, the stock market doesn't always follow this pattern. In the 2020 recession, S&P 500 returns for the year were 16.3%.

The S&P 500 drops during a recession because companies have lower earnings due to decreased consumer spending. Investors then react negatively to this news by continuing to sell shares. This creates a vicious cycle, a downward spiral of market damage.

You can keep money in a bank account during a recession and it will be safe through FDIC and NCUA deposit insurance. Up to $250,000 is secure in individual bank accounts and $500,000 is safe in joint bank accounts.

Companies in the business of providing tools and materials for home improvement, maintenance, and repair projects are likely to see stable or even increasing demand during a recession. So do many appliance repair service people. New home builders, though, do not get in on the action.

Cash. Cash is an important asset when it comes to a recession. After all, if you do end up in a situation where you need to pull from your assets, it helps to have a dedicated emergency fund to fall back on, especially if you experience a layoff.

What are the best selling products during a recession? Items like personal hygiene, household items, pet food, diapers, food and beverages, and cleaning products all sell well during an economic recession. These items are either used frequently or are required for consumers to live happy, healthy lives.

Though dividend stocks are not immune to recession, these companies often demonstrate more stability than high-growth or speculative stocks during periods of economic downturn.

Cash Is King During a Recession

As companies cut back and job losses mount, “it's better to be safe than sorry and beef up cash reserves during times of high employment.” However, selling investments to get cash in anticipation of a recession is risky. You might sell prematurely and get trapped in cash as markets rise.

The strategy is very simple: count how many days, hours, or bars a run-up or a sell-off has transpired. Then on the third, fifth, or seventh bar, look for a bounce in the opposite direction. Too easy? Perhaps, but it's uncanny how often it happens.

What is the 3 day rule in stocks?

The 3-Day Rule in stock trading refers to the settlement rule that requires the finalization of a transaction within three business days after the trade date. This rule impacts how payments and orders are processed, requiring traders to have funds or credit in their accounts to cover purchases by the settlement date.

Some traders follow something called the "10 a.m. rule." The stock market opens for trading at 9:30 a.m., and the time between 9:30 a.m. and 10 a.m. often has significant trading volume. Traders that follow the 10 a.m. rule think a stock's price trajectory is relatively set for the day by the end of that half-hour.

As Buffett famously wrote in a 2008 op-ed for The New York Times: “Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful.” This essentially means that when others are fearful of investing money — like ahead of or during a recession — you should take advantage by scooping up stocks and other assets at ...

Lower prices — A recession often hits after a long period of sky-high consumer prices. At the onset of a recession, these prices suddenly drop, balancing out previous long inflationary costs. As a result, people on fixed incomes can benefit from new, lower prices, including real estate sales.

According to the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the average length of recessions since World War II has been approximately 11 months. But the exact length of a recession is difficult to predict. In general, a recession lasts anywhere from six to 18 months.